Scientific Methodology
Blast Effect Calculations
Our simulator uses scientifically validated formulas derived from nuclear weapons testing data and the seminal work "The Effects of Nuclear Weapons" by Glasstone & Dolan.
Fireball Radius
Radius (km) = 0.28 × Yield^0.33The fireball vaporizes everything within this radius. Temperature exceeds 10 million degrees Celsius.
Air Blast Zones
- 20 PSI (Severe):0.28 × Yield^0.33 km - Reinforced concrete structures destroyed
- 5 PSI (Moderate):1.03 × Yield^0.33 km - Most residential buildings collapse
- 1 PSI (Light):2.93 × Yield^0.33 km - Windows shatter, light injuries
Thermal Radiation
- 3rd Degree Burns:0.67 × Yield^0.41 km - Severe burns requiring immediate medical care
- 2nd Degree Burns:1.2 × Yield^0.41 km - Painful burns, potential scarring
Casualty Estimates
Casualties are calculated based on population density and empirically-derived mortality rates for each blast effect zone:
| Zone | Mortality Rate |
|---|---|
| Fireball | 100% |
| 20 PSI Overpressure | 98% |
| 5 PSI Overpressure | 50% |
| 3rd Degree Burns | 95% |
| Fallout (24-48h) | 30% |
Data Sources
- Glasstone, S., & Dolan, P. J. (1977). The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (3rd ed.)
- Federation of American Scientists - Nuclear Weapons Effects Calculator
- NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein - Validation data
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency publications
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory - Nuclear Weapons FAQ
Important Disclaimers
This simulator provides estimates based on idealized conditions. Actual effects would vary based on:
- Terrain and geographic features
- Weather conditions
- Building construction standards
- Time of day (population distribution)
- Altitude of detonation
- Emergency response capabilities